This study empirically investigates the relationship between India’s GDP growth and stock market performance, focusing on the Nifty 50 index over the period 2008–2024. During these years marked by major economic transitions—including post-crisis recovery, key structural reforms, and the COVID-19 shock—real GDP growth exhibited relative stability, while stock market returns displayed significantly higher volatility. Descriptive analysis reveals that GDP growth averaged 6.11% compared to 2.66% for Nifty returns, with coefficients of variation of 0.77 and 3.36 respectively, underscoring the contrasting nature of these indicators. A Pearson correlation coefficient of indicates a weak linear relationship between GDP growth and equity returns. To further explore the connection, a multiple regression model incorporating inflation, the RBI repo rate, and the USD–INR exchange rate was estimated. The low adjusted R-squared value and absence of statistically significant predictors suggest that neither GDP nor the selected macroeconomic variables reliably explain short-term stock market movements. These findings imply that Indian equity markets are influenced more by forward-looking expectations, global cues, and policy signals than by contemporaneous GDP figures. The study concludes that while stock markets and GDP share broad long-term trends, their short-term interactions are weak and complex.
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