Purpose –The purpose of this study is to understand the combined impact of Emotional Intelligence and cognitive biases of individual investors’ behaviour in investing into Indian stock market. It is the Emotional Intelligence that dictates the way people deal with one another and understand emotions. Through analysing previous literature, it is found that emotional intelligence can play mediating role at the time of checking the impact of Availability bias on investment decisions. Design/methodology/approach – The data gathered, analysed and tested from 195 respondents. The region of research was the individual investors having basic knowledge about investment from major cities of Gujarat. The convenient sampling was used in this examination. Findings – The statistical analysis suggests that among the predictors, risk perception, emotional intelligence, and herding bias are major drivers of individual’s investment decisions. Risk Perception, Emotional Intelligence, Confirmation Bias and Herding Bias significantly influence investment decisions. While Anchoring Bias and Financial Literacy was found to be significant in a separate test having indirect relationship with investment decision. Availability Bias did not have direct impact on investment decisions but having indirect relationship with mediating role of Emotional Intelligence. Research limitations/implications – The sample selection was based on convenient sampling. The sample was area specific, restricted to Indian stock market and major cities of gujarat. Therefore, the results of the study cannot be generalized to all the investors investing through other exchanges. The inferences are based on the assumption that the data provided by the investors are true and correct. Practical implications – The benefit of this study is that it may help the investors in understanding the subjective part of their cognitive behavior and control their emotions while making investment decisions in stock market options.
Behavioral finance is a study that combines psychology and finance to understand how individuals make financial decisions. The focus of Traditional finance theory was limited to rationality of individuals Markowitz (1952). However, as per Kahneman and Tversky (1979) theory in the field of behavioral finance recognizes that people often make decisions that deviate from rationality due to cognitive biases and emotional factors.
The relationship between cognitive biases and investment decisions is profound and widely studied in the field of behavioral finance. Cognitive biases are systematic process of human brain to deviate from rationality in judgment, whereby inferences about other people and situations may be drawn in an illogical manner. These biases can affect various aspects of decision-making, including those related to investments. Here's how:
These biases can lead to suboptimal investment decisions and contribute to market inefficiencies. Recognizing and understanding these biases is crucial for investors to make more rational and informed decisions.
The investor behavior: from the perspective of emotion and rationality
Based on the rationality assumption, the financial theories were appeared to provide managers and investors many powerful tools to take their financial decisions and provide insights into expected return and risk. For example, the modern portfolio theory (MPT) can be used by investors as a tool to optimize their return to risk ratio. It leads them to apply the diversification between many stocks (either bond) to reduce volatility and obtain the highest return possible. The capital assets pricing model (CAPM) and the arbitrage pricing theory (APT) create other powerful tools. Based on the past information the investors can use these models to evaluate the fair value of the stocks. The theory of efficient market hypothesis (EMH) with its three versions of the efficient market hypotheses (weak, semi-strong and strong) also appeared by Fama, 1970 to help investors to predict the future value of stock based on past information. It has a very important implication because it explains why market prices change and how those changes take place. With the strong appearance of derivatives products, the option pricing model (OPM) and other mathematical models such as binomial option pricing model, stochastic volatility model, continuous time model and local volatility model came to help the investors to determine the option price of the underlying stock in real-time. At this level of mathematical complications, the quantitative finance and the machine learning theories appeared to support the practical side of the different financial theories.
However, many psychologists and researchers have considered that investors are affected by psychological factors and due to their behaviours, they cannot forecast the stocks values without violate the rationality assumption of financial theories. Moreover, the using of machine learning system can lead the investors to take non optimal decisions during some circumstances especially after filtering and shortcutting some psychological and emotional information.
Some researchers are realizing now the importance of investors’ investment behavior besides the traditional financial theories. They consider the financial decision as a complex sequence of four steps (input, process, output and feedback) in which emotions play a crucial role. During the first step all the facts of stocks and other data such as politics, economics and market emotion tendency are used to overcome uncertainty.
The prospect theory (Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, in 1979) has confirmed how people take decision involving high level of uncertainty. Based on this theory, the investors frame their financial decisions in term of potential value of losses and gains rather than outcomes. When investor buys one stock instead of selecting others, he is essentially making an intuitive prediction about positive and negative context. In general, he prefers the low risk option in case of positive frame and the high-risk alternative in case of negative frame. Even he uses the machine learning system as a tool for his fundamental analysis his reaction can be different and influenced by his mood based on his losing and winning frames.
The risk perception is considered as a mediator which is essential for establishing the common factor between behavioral finance, risk perception, and investment decision (S. U. Ahmed et al., 2022).
OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY
Population and sample and procedure
When analysing data, people often tend to give more importance to recent patterns while disregarding the underlying characteristics of the population that generated the data (Fama, 1998). In this study, the population consists of investors who are directly or indirectly involved in trading stocks in Indian stock market. The aim is to assess the overall level of investment behaviour within this population and evaluate the presence of behavioral biases in the equity market. The sample size of the study is questionnaires which were given to circulated to 250 individuals who have knowledge and experience of investment in the Indian equity market, only 219 questionnaires were completely filled out by the respondents and considered for analysis and out of this, only 195 responses are considered as reliable and accurate for the statistical testing.
Convenience sampling is a simple and easy way for research. But it should be known that when to use it and when not to. Hence, in this study, convenient sampling is employed to gather data from investors investing in the Indian stock market with special reference Gujarat. The data on investors are obtained personally through physical copies of questionnaire as well as through online google form.
Research Instrument
The questionnaire used in the study contained 43 questions designed to receive information on various variables that may influence investment decisions. The questions were divided into two main categories: demographic information (Table 1) as well as investment information (Table 2) and behavioral factors scaling the investment decisions. The demographic section included questions on gender, education, occupation, percentage of saving invested in stock market and portfolio size. The investment behavioral factors section contained Likert scale-based questions understanding about Risk Perception, Financial Literacy, Emotional Intelligence, Herding Bias, Anchoring Bias, Confirmation Bias, Availability Bias and Investment Decision of individual investors. Out of 38, 34 were specifically aimed at measuring the behavioral factors influencing investment decisions. The remaining 4 questions were focused on measuring the investment decision behaviour itself.
The Likert scale used in this study contains the dimensions ranged from 1= strongly disagree to 5 = strongly agree (Pompian, 2011). The collected data were tabulated and tested using SPSS software. Once normality of the data was confirmed, advanced analysis has been done using Multiple Regression with SPSS software. Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) to test the hypotheses of the conceptual framework.
Hypothesis Framing
Bashar Yaser Almansour, Sabri Elkrghli & Ammar Yaser Almansour (2023) study found that Behavioral finance factors, along with risk perception influence investment decisions, which suggest that these factors play a crucial role in investment decision making. Therefore, the study can have following hypothesizes:
Demographic Information and Investment Information Analysis and Interpretation
Table 1: Demographic Information
|
Criteria |
|
Number |
% |
|
Gender |
Male |
122 |
55.71% |
|
Female |
97 |
44.29% |
|
|
Total |
219 |
100% |
|
|
Education |
High School |
3 |
1.37% |
|
Graduate |
32 |
14.61% |
|
|
Post-Graduate |
125 |
57.07% |
|
|
Professional Degree |
45 |
20.55% |
|
|
Doctoral Degree |
14 |
6.39% |
|
|
Total |
219 |
100% |
|
|
Occupation |
Government Employee |
10 |
4.57% |
|
Private Sector Employee |
98 |
44.75% |
|
|
Professional / Businessman |
30 |
13.7% |
|
|
Retired |
8 |
3.65% |
|
|
Student |
59 |
26.94% |
|
|
Other |
14 |
6.39% |
|
|
Total |
219 |
100% |
|
Table 2: Investment information
|
Criteria |
|
Number |
% |
|
Percentage of savings invested in stock market |
a) Less than 10% |
91 |
41.55% |
|
b) Between 10% - 20% |
65 |
29.68% |
|
|
c) Between 20% - 30 |
34 |
13.68% |
|
|
d) Between 30% - 40% |
18 |
15.53% |
|
|
e) Above 40% |
11 |
5.02% |
|
|
Total |
219 |
100% |
|
|
Portfolio Size |
(in ₹) |
|
|
|
a) Less than 2 lakhs |
150 |
68% |
|
|
b) Between 2-5 lakhs |
42 |
19.18% |
|
|
c) Between 5-10 lakhs |
7 |
3.2% |
|
|
d) Above 10 lakhs |
20 |
9.13% |
|
|
Total |
219 |
100% |
|
As per the above two tables, we can see that almost 58 percentage investors are male and the rest are female. As far as education is concerned, majority respondents are having post-graduation degree (57.07%) followed by professional degree holders. Almost 15 percentage of investors are graduates and the rest have high schooling and doctoral degree.
Here, as shown in table 1, almost 45% of the respondents are private sector employees. As I have used convenient sampling method, around 25 percentage of the investors are students which currently acquiring post-graduation degree.
We can see from Table 2, that almost 41.55% of the investors have less than 2 lakhs as their portfolio size. Apart from that, majority investors are having portfolio size of less than ₹2 Lakhs.
PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS
The following table shows Normality Test of the data. As, in the Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test, the test statistic does not exceed the critical value for a given significance level of 0.05. similarly, the test results of Shapiro-Wilk test are significant (Sig. is less than 0.05), it indicates that the data follows a normal distribution.
Table 3: Normality Test
Table 3 presents the Cronbach’s alpha coefficients for checking the level of reliability for each of various behavioral biases used in this research in Indian stock market investors.
Table 4: Reliability Statistics
As we can see here in Table 4, The Cronbach's alpha coefficients for Emotional Intelligence, Financial Literacy and Investment Decisions is greater than 0.7 which is reliable. The scale of all the biases are reliable enough to gauging the desired constructs. Reliability Statistics indicates that the variables assessed were accurate and consistent for the research.
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Table – 5: Descriptive statistics
In Table 5, it shows the descriptive statistics of eight variables measured in the study.
Central Tendency (Mean): The means for all variables range between approximately 3.22 and 3.51, suggesting that most responses were around the mid-point of the scale used in the study. Standard deviation (SD) shows how much the responses vary from the mean. The highest SD is for Confirmation Bias (CB mean) at 0.844, indicating higher variability in responses. The lowest SD is for Emotional Intelligence (EI mean) at 0.662, suggesting more consistency in responses.
Skewness: Most variables have skewness values close to “Zero”, indicating that the data is approximately symmetrical. Most variables have kurtosis values close to zero, that means distributions are fairly normal.
Most variables have 179-180 valid observations. Listwise valid N is 179, meaning one case was excluded due to missing values. The data appears normally distributed with slight variations. Confirmation Bias (CB) shows the highest variance and skewness, indicating greater variation among respondents. Emotional Intelligence (EI) shows the least variability, suggesting respondents had more agreement in their responses.
Table – 6: ANOVA
Table – 7: Coefficients
Analysis and Interpretation: Final Model Coefficients
The final model includes RP mean, EI mean, and HB mean as independent variables. All three predictors are statistically significant (p < 0.05 in the "Sig." column). The VIF values are low (< 5), so this means that there is no multicollinearity between the variables. Here, as we can see that all included variables significantly impact the dependent variable (Investment Decision Mean) since p-values are below 0.05.
RESULT OF HYPOTHESIS
According to the above analysis, we can conclude that:
On the contrary, H2, H4, H6 and H7 is rejected. So, we can say that according to this study Financial Literacy, Anchoring Bias, Confirmation bias and availability have no significant impact on investment decisions.
Moderating Role of Emotional Intelligence (EI)
Moderating Role of Emotional Intelligence (EI)
Y = ID mean, X = CB mean, W = EI mean
Sample Size: 195
OUTCOME VARIABLE:
ID mean: Model Summary
|
R |
R-sq |
MSE |
F |
df1 |
df2 |
p |
|
.3162 |
.1000 |
.5827 |
7.0703 |
3.0000 |
191.0000 |
.0002 |
Covariance matrix of regression parameter estimates:
|
constant |
CB mean |
EI mean |
Int_1 |
|
|
constant |
.5526 |
-.1701 |
-.1526 |
.0455 |
|
CB mean |
-.1701 |
.0587 |
.0452 |
-.0153 |
|
EI mean |
.1526 |
.0452 |
.0456 |
-.0131 |
|
Int_1 |
.0455 |
-.0153 |
-.0131 |
.0043 |
Test(s) of highest order unconditional interaction(s):
|
R2-chng |
F |
df1 |
df2 |
p |
|
|
X*W |
.0151 |
3.2065 |
1.0000 |
191.0000 |
.0749 |
Conditional effects of the focal predictor at values of the moderator(s):
|
EI mean |
Effect |
se |
t |
p |
LLCI |
ULCI |
|
2.4545 |
.2488 |
.0976 |
2.5485 |
.0116 |
.0562 |
.4414 |
|
3.0000 |
.1849 |
.0749 |
2.4684 |
.0145 |
.0371 |
.3326 |
|
3.8182 |
.0890 |
.0671 |
1.3260 |
.1864 |
-.0434 |
.2214 |
OUTCOME VARIABLE:
IDmean
|
Coeff |
Boot Mean |
Boot SE |
BootL LCI |
Boot ULCI |
|
|
constant |
.7898 |
.7335 |
.9263 |
-1.2165 |
2.4685 |
|
CBmean |
.5365 |
.5438 |
.3043 |
-.0370 |
1.1672 |
|
EImean |
.5976 |
.6179 |
.2751 |
.1320 |
1.2137 |
|
Int_1 |
-.1172 |
-.1202 |
.0843 |
-.2987 |
.0388 |
Analysis and Interpretation:
The findings highlight that Risk Perception (RP), Emotional Intelligence (EI), and Herding Bias (HB) significantly influence investment decisions (ID). Risk Perception has the strongest positive impact, indicating that individuals perceiving higher risk are makes strategic investment choices. Similarly, Emotional Intelligence plays a crucial role, suggesting that emotionally intelligent individuals make more balanced investment decisions. Herding Bias also significantly affects investment choices, showing that people follow market trends and collective behaviours.
While Anchoring Bias was found to be significant in a separate test. Financial Literacy (FL) was also not statistically significant. Confirmation Bias and Availability Bias (AVB) did not have a significant impact on investment decisions, suggesting that seeking confirming information or relying on easily available data does not strongly influence investor behavior.
We can see in the moderation analysis that the Confirmation Bias have significant impact on the investment decisions but only when Emotional Intelligence moderates this relation.
Overall, the results emphasize the importance of cognitive biases and emotional intelligence in shaping investment decisions, with risk perception emerging as the most influential factor.