Advances in Consumer Research
Issue 5 : 420-428
Original Article
Geopolitical Oil Shocks and Sectoral Stock Returns in India: The Exchange rate channel during Middle East Conflicts..
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1
Associate Professor & HOD, Department of M.Com, Dayananda Sagar College of Arts, Science and Commerce, Shavige Malleswara hills, Kumaraswamy layout, Bangalore.
2
Associate Professor and HOD, Department of MBA, RL Jalappa Institute of Technology, Bangalore
3
Assistant Professor, Department of MBA, Global Academy of Technology, Rajarajeshwari nagar, Bangalore
4
Associate Professor, Ramaiah Institute of Management Studies(RIMS), Gokula, Bangalore
Abstract

This study examines the impact of geopolitical oil shocks arising from Middle East conflicts on sectoral stock returns in India, with particular emphasis on the rupee dollar exchange rate as a transmission channel. Using a quantitative empirical design and secondary high-frequency data on crude oil prices, exchange rates, and sectoral equity indices, the paper investigates whether conflict-induced oil shocks generate heterogeneous effects across Indian industries and whether currency movements amplify or mitigate these effects. The analysis is motivated by India’s high dependence on imported crude oil and its exposure to external volatility through inflation, current account pressure, and rupee depreciation. The study finds that geopolitical oil shocks do not affect all sectors uniformly; instead, energy-intensive, import-dependent, and rate-sensitive sectors tend to experience stronger adverse reactions, while commodity-linked and upstream sectors show relative resilience or gains. The exchange rate emerges as a key mediator, reinforcing the spillover from crude price shocks to sectoral equity performance. The findings contribute to the literature on oil shocks, geopolitical risk, and emerging-market financial stability by highlighting the importance of sectoral heterogeneity and currency transmission in India’s equity market during conflict episodes. The study also offers practical implications for portfolio diversification, hedging, and policy design in oil-import-dependent economies.

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